A more believable scenario on Airbus A-330? Maybe. Maybe not.

This was posted not exactly on the Delta Blog the other day ( as it seemed on D. L. Roberts email compilation ) but after tracking it down, actually on A Pilots Memoirs:

Here Today, Gone Tomorrow

As you know, an Air France Airbus A-330 is missing over the Atlantic from South America to Paris France. As of this writing, there has been no visible signs of wreckage. It is presumed that Weather was a factor. According to the weather map that I saw, there was a severe weather frontal system extending from Brazil to the West Coast of Africa, which was on a Southwest to a Northeast line. This was the exact flight path of this Aircraft. It appeared to be Weather Front. It appeared that it contained Severe Thunderstorms and Severe Turbulence, which could have contributed to the Disaster. I flew the Airbus A-310, which was a smaller version of the Airbus A-330. On November 12, 2001 there was an Aviation Disaster of an Airbus A-310 departing New York’s JFK Airport. The crash was attributed to Wake Turbulence attributed by a Boeing B747 that had just departed. In essence, the Airbus A-310’s rudder separated from the Aircraft causing the Disaster. The flight was American Airlines Flight 587.
In the final analysis, the rudder disintegrated due to a composite material within the Rudder Structure. There is an in-depth explanation at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Airlines_Fllight_587 which goes into the details. I do not know of the construction of this Airbus A-330, however, if these two aircraft are similar, it could mean that the rudder assembly could have disintegrated also due the severe turbulence generated by the Severe Thunderstorms Aloft. I do not think that a Lightning Strike would have caused the disaster, we all(Airline Pilots) have been hit by Lightning. Electrical Power on-board an Aircraft is supplied by Engine Driven Generators (2) Auxiliary Power Unit, Battery (30Minutes) and a RAT (Ram Air Turbine). I do not think that this Disaster was caused by the lack of Electrical Power.
In conclusion, other than terrorism, the only other plausible explanation, at this point in time, is the destruction of the Aircraft due to Severe Turbulence. As I stated earlier, I flew the Airbus A-310 and also the Boeing B767 ER (Extended Range) and as the saying goes “Boeing Builds Them Better.” CIAO For Now.

Captain Nicholas Gravino Jr.
Posted by A Pilot’s Memoirs at 3:59 AM 0 comments

Maybe. This is very problematic, and making statements like this can really bite a person in the ass when made before a final NTSB determination.

People might also want to think about the ‘magic’ fly by wire stuff that has been engineered into the Airbus. How about that regrettable 1988 Paris Air Show incident, when the aircraft proceeded to ‘land’ in spite of the crews efforts to not do that - with a horrible resulting crash which killed three and injured dozens.

The training that heavy iron pilots get says, when confronted with extreme turbulence, shut off the auto pilot. Get rid of the ‘magic stuff’ before it tears the airplane apart … going down memory lane again, remember that 1985 China Airlines 747? They sat there and refused to turn the auto pilot off and damn near crashed. The aircraft was totalled, after they incredibly made a ‘safe’ landing after rolling over and falling nearly 30,000 feet.

Here is the Wikipedia entry:

China Airlines Flight 006 (callsign “Dynasty 006”) was a daily non-stop flight departing from Taipei at 4:15pm and arriving in Los Angeles International Airport at 7:00am local time. On February 19, 1985, it was involved in an accident that caused two serious injuries and substantial damage to the aircraft. After ten hours of flight the Boeing 747SP-09 lost power in one of its four engines. In spite of having several minutes to act, the pilots failed to adjust the controls to counteract the asymmetric thrust resulting from the failed engine. The aircraft eventually rolled over and plunged 30,000ft (9,100m), experiencing high speeds and very high forces. The pilots recovered control and diverted to San Francisco International Airport.

The point here: you can tear a Boeing apart at altitude just as well as an Airbus if you’re stupid enough to just sit there or the magic shit just won’t disengage completely. This is what accident investigation teams and black boxes are for.

Conjecture - even based on personal experience - doesn’t cut it.

maven